Predicting RIPE’s depletion date

This week APNIC delegated their last IPv4 address the conventional way. The remaining pool of IPv4 addresses in the APNIC region will be delegated in small chunks of 1024 addresses. There is in other words nothing left other than breadcrumbs in this region.

In contradiction to my very exact estimate of the IANA depletion date, my tool and the mathematics I have been using failed to predict the APNIC depletion date with good accuracy. The algorithms that I have been using were not very good at predicting how an over 300% increase in demand over the last 2 months affected the depletion date. I would have been better off just using a linear algorithm with the last 2 months of demand as my input.

I must say that I was very surprised how quickly the APNIC pool got depleted. It appears that a “rush to the bank” happened once the members in the region realized that they might not get any additional IPv4 addresses. As the graph below indicates, the APNIC average burn rate went from slightly below 400,000 IPv4 addresses per day prior to the IANA exhaustion to almost 1.2 million IPv4 addresses per day after the IANA pool was depleted…

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IANA geeft laatste twee /8s IPv4 blokken aan APNIC

1 February 2011, De Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) heeft de laatste twee /8s aan IPv4 adres ruimte uitgegeven aan de Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (APNIC).
Dit betekend dat er nog slechts vijf /8s aan IPv4 ruimte over zijn. Deze laatste vijf zullen worden uitgedeeld aan de vijf Regional Internet Registrys (RIRs) in de loop van deze week. Zodra dit is gebeurd is de IPv4 voorraad officeel helemaal verbruikt.
Het beleid voor deze laatste uitgave kan gevonden worden op:

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36/8 and 42/8 to APNIC

The IANA IPv4 address space registry now shows 36/8 and 42/8 being allocated to APNIC