The fact that AfriNIC has handed out a farly large number of IPv4 addresses lately has raised some interesting concerns about when the IANA pool will run out. Is AfriNIC’s high allocation rate just a coincidence, or is this a trend that will continue?

This raises an interesting concern. Will AfriNIC actually be able to allocate an additional block from IANA before the central pool of IPv4 addresses gets depleted? They would get that last block at APNIC’s expense. This would also cause the IANA depletion date to be bumped earlier with about a month.

A lot suggest that this will be the case. The table below shows all allocations larger than 50,000 IPv4 that has been allocated this year from AfriNIC’s pool. AfriNIC has about 87% of a /8 block left in their pool today. According to the allocation policy between RIRs and IANA they are allowed to request more space when their current space goes below 50% of one /8. So they will do so if they manage to burn 37% of a /8 before the IANA pool is depleted. Their current burn rate is about 800,000 addresses per month (5% of a /8 per month). Burning 37% of a /8 would in this case take about 7-8 months for them.

Size    Region  Country         Date            IPv4 number
2097152 afrinic TN              20100503        197.0.0.0
524288  afrinic EG              20100308        197.192.0.0
524288  afrinic DZ              20100528        197.200.0.0
262144  afrinic MU              20100407        197.224.0.0
131072  afrinic KE              20100616        41.80.0.0
65536   afrinic KE              20100108        41.89.0.0
65536   afrinic EG              20100108        41.88.0.0
65536   afrinic SN              20100528        41.62.0.0
65536   afrinic ZA              20100527        41.61.0.0
65536   afrinic ZM              20100513        41.60.0.0
65536   afrinic TZ              20100413        41.59.0.0
65536   afrinic NG              20100308        41.58.0.0
65536   afrinic ZA              20100129        41.57.0.0
65536   afrinic ZA              20100125        41.56.0.0